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| What if a terrorist group announced that their operatives had introduced Rift Valley fever into the United States? This mosquito-borne disease would make West Nile virus look like a case of the sniffles. Given that virtually every corner of America has a native species of mosquito capable of transmitting the virus, Rift Valley fever could spread across the nation. Hundreds of thousands of people could be sickened, with thousands dying and many more falling blind. |
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| Such cooperation would not bridge the main differences between SCO members and the West over issues like democratization and human rights. Cooperation would also need to comprise much more than mere joint policy development, and should involve the practical pursuit of mutually beneficial, smaller-scale ad hoc projects. NATO and the SCO could work together on neutralizing anti-personnel mines in Afghanistan. |
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| If nothing else, the events occurring between the August 2007 and August 2008 SCO summits have shown that Moscow cannot rely upon the SCO either to endorse Russian foreign policy aims or to reduce American and Western influence in the SCO region. The problem for Moscow in influencing the SCO is that while the former Soviet republics of Central Asia may be afraid of it, China is not. |
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站長短評：在俄羅斯出兵進入喬治亞 Abkhaz 與 South Ossetian 並承認其獨立地位之後，二００八年上海合作組織高峰會隨即召開，俄國總統希望透過其在上合組織的影響力，取得會員國支持其行動並承認兩地的獨立地位，然而四個中亞國家與中國並未公開支持，僅含蓄地表達關心，透露出俄羅斯在上合組織的實力並不如外界所期待的強大。當中國不當莫斯科應聲蟲，且各會員國的國內皆有獨立運動時，俄羅斯無法迫使周邊的前蘇聯盟邦認同其外交政策，且各種跡象顯示莫斯科與這些國家的關係每況愈下。 |
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| The ministerial meeting in Dushanbe a month and a half prior to the summit briefly discussed the principle of consensus, which is the SCO's backbone. If five members agree to Iran's entry and the sixth is against it, doesn't it make sense to accept it? But the principle of consensus remains immutable. It slows down decision-making but makes the organization more stable. |
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| The real question, however, is whether these diplomatic sanctions matter anymore. In just seven years, the SCO has transformed itself from a glorified border-security framework into a regional counterterrorism entity into an alternative international bloc, with an important security component and significant economic and political potential. While it still lacks many of the elements that would make a true rival to NATO, the SCO is already a factor altering the Eurasian geopolitical calculus. |
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| The end of the Cold War was supposed to usher in a new age in which the major powers would no longer dictate to their neighbors how to run their affairs. That is why Russia's invasion of Georgia is so tragic and so potentially ominous. Russia is now on watch: Will it continue to rely on coercion to achieve its imperial aims or is it willing to work within the emerging international system that values cooperation and consensus? |
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| Washington has barely four months to achieve this objective. But it is not a tall order. If the Bush administration succeeds, a page in history is written. We may conclusively say goodbye to the post-Cold War era. Russia's relations with Europe and the US can never be the same again. Blood has been drawn, after all. The Beijing Olympics, in comparison, pale in significance. |
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| Whatever name it may go by today — be it Hizbul Islam Li-Turkistan, the East Turkistan Islamic Movement or the Turkistan Islamic Party — the Uighur Islamist militant movement remains a security threat to Beijing. And in its current incarnation, drawing on internationalist resources and experiences and sporting a more diffuse structure, the Uighur militancy may well be getting a second wind. |
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| All this matters because increasing interference from East and West is undermining traditional Islam in Central Asia and weakening its ability to combat from within the growing threat of radicalisation. If Central Asian Muslims succeed in preserving and extending their brand of indigenous traditional Islam, then they will be better equipped to withstand political manipulation by the West and cultural assimilation by the East. |
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| The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, originally envisioned as a regional security provider in Central Asia, is striving to branch out into the energy sphere. The United States and European Union, two energy rivals in the regions, profess not to be concerned � yet. |
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